When it comes to buying a car in Southern California, if you're not going to get a refrigerator, then there are two rules it appears people follow: "gotta have the newest", and "there is no such thing as bad taste". Somewhat below these two rules is the importance of getting the "right" marque: Mercedes, BMW or Porsche. What does this mean in the current and future market?
One example of the first rule is the popularity of the Toyota Prius. They are backordered and the dealers are charging a premium. They are the most PC car you can buy today. That's a big thing in Southern California, so the celebrities must have one and be seen in one, therefore the wannabes need to have one as well. Toyota limits production because (they deny this) they lose money on each one made.
So, look into the near-term crystal ball and you see the next Toyota hybrid. It's a hybrid version of the RX300 coming out next spring. Wow! Not only a very PC car, but also a SUV! How perfect can transportation be? Some dealers have deposits and a huge waiting list. Others say they won't take deposits because they "aren't sure about the quantities they will get and don't want customers to be disappointed". What that means in reality is that they don't want deposits on a car that they'd have to sell at list price when they can extort customers with a huge "dealer markup" when the RX400s actually get delivered to them. Since the "gotta have" part of the first rule is very important, there will be lots of customers ready to pay anything to get one of the first ones here.
Honda hopes to trump Toyota with a hybrid Accord this fall. Theirs is a much less complicated design than the Toyota. Honda is telling us that the newest Accord will have greater performance than the "normal" one plus better mileage. These will sell well too, but not to those who make the trends in Southern California. After all, it will be indistinguishable from a normal refrigerator Accord. Plus in all likelihood it also will be a refrigerator, just a slightly faster refrigerator. The list price has not yet been determined, but certainly will be more than a normal Accord. I wonder how long it will take to pay off the extra charge in gasoline savings.
A good example of all the rules is the BMW 7-series. If not bad taste, it certainly isn't a beautiful design. But it definitely tells everyone that you have the newest BMW 7-series, and that you have the "right" marque in a BMW. And like it or not, it does this in no uncertain terms. The new 5-series is very much in line with this "styling statement". BMW justifies being different, saying that their previous designs had been copied too much and needed something to be distinctive. That is a very good way of putting it. Drive one up and all your neighbors (co-workers and customers too) know that you have the newest and latest BMW. This is very important!
At the other end of this design scale is the new XJ Jaguar. I mentioned this last week. The brand new, from the tires up, design looks almost exactly like the model it replaced. In Southern California, this is not good. It is reflected in sales. While the car is far better in every way than the car it replaced, your neighbors can't tell unless it is in a different color. And then they aren't sure if they just don't exactly remember what color your car was, or that you got another one just like your old one. It appears that this was not a good business decision for Jaguar.
Unfortunately, this seems to be a design mandate for Ford these days. All their new cars seem to be copies of old cars. Look at the new Mustang or even the new Ford 500. The Mustang is different (and easily recognizable as new), but still is very reminiscent of the older ones. Call it a retro design. The Ford 500 (which sort of replaces the Taurus and maybe the Crown Victoria) is a very conservative design. For this reason, it will be a rental car in Southern California regardless of how good the basic car is.
Also at this end of the design scale is the new Porsche 911. Even looking rather closely, it is hard to tell that it is "new". Yes, the headlights are a slightly different shape, but very similar to an even older model. Also the taillights are slightly reshaped as well. But everything in between looks identical to the old one. Porsche tells us that everything is new except for the roof panel. It is very hard to tell that.
What does this say to the new buyer of a 911? If that buyer wants to tell everyone he has the newest and latest, he'll probably go over to the BMW dealer and look at the 645CSi which really does look new. If he must have a Porsche, he'll probably buy one and have to tell everyone that he has a new one because they won't be able to tell.
Then there is the new Acura RL. It is a quite handsome looking, but also quite anonymous looking car. Honda still doesn’t have a rear-drive car, so they've given the RL a fancy electronic all-wheel-drive system that is almost rear-drive sometimes. Also still no V-8, so it will be relegated to the buyer who wants a very luxurious refrigerator in Southern California. I do not predict big sales. This is the car for the buyer who wants a six-cylinder Lexus LS. Yawn.
There are three landmark designs that once were the "newest" thing to have: the PT Cruiser, New Beetle, and MINI. I have a question to the manufacturers of those very unique cars: How do you make a new design that everyone knows is new, but still keeps the flavor of the old design? Do you do a 911 and make it all new but still look almost exactly like the old one? Today that isn't a great decision. But how do you cross that line of obviously new without abandoning the good-will of the old design? Very difficult.
