Car "Dude" Alan

Issue 189 -- 9 August 2007

What's up with GM? We're hearing a lot about Ford making a profit for the first time in a long time (and not likely again for awhile). We are also hearing about the new Chairman of the privatized Chrysler, not all good. But what is in the future for GM. This came to mind just after driving a new GMC Acadia and reading GM's future plans in Automotive News.

The good news is the Acadia that Evan and I drove. It really is a nice competitive car-SUV that is big enough to carry six real my-sized people (they say seven). You will be able to read about it as a Feature in the near future.

But what about the bottom of the market: the economy cars, the Chevrolet Cobalt and Pontiac G5. Not much here. The prediction is a redesign in 2011. That is an awful long time from now. The cars built today just aren't competitive. The Koreans have similar cars, but are priced lower and have a longer warranty. The Honda Civic, the standard for the market, is priced higher, but is a much better car too. GM blames the delay introducing a replacement for the Cobalt/G5 on the labor contract at the assembly plant in Lordstown, Ohio. The options for no new contract are a slightly updated car (like the Ford Focus), or possibly an import from China.

Moving upmarket, the Chevrolet Malibu is due for a much-needed remake as a 2008 model. GM tells us that it will be fully competitive with the Camry and Accord. It is going to be bigger than the current model. One wonders if Chevrolet dealers will offer a Camry and Accord on the lot for comparison like the Saturn dealers do for the Aura. If they have confidence like that, it may just be a good car. Also we should see a hybrid variant soon after introduction.

Speaking of the Saturn Aura, it is due for a remake in 2010. That is a short run for a U.S. car. The Malibu won't catch up until 2011 or 2012, which is more like a normal model run.

Is there a Chevrolet in your (or my) future? Let's see. GM showed three microcar prototypes at the New York Auto Show. They are smaller than a MINI and were designed by the GM subsidiary in South Korea. Production is pretty likely. Sales in the U.S. are questionable.

The other South Korean car in the U.S. Chevy lineup is the Aveo. It is due for a redesign in 2010. Of course it will be bigger than the current one.

When the new Malibu is introduced (soon), the Malibu Maxx will disappear. If that is your cup of tea, get one soon.

GM is really pushing technology development hard to get the Chevrolet Volt concept into production as soon as they can. It will be the first GM car to be designed from the beginning to be a plug-in hybrid. For GM's future success, it can't get to the dealers soon enough.

Plans for a new Impala are really up in the air. It would be here in a couple of years if Congress doesn't dramatically raise CAFÉ standards. It is to be a rear-drive car, truly in the tradition of the Impala, not like the front-drive awful current model, and built on the same platform as the Pontiac G8 that comes soon. Some other decisions are whether it will be called an Impala and whether it will be priced where the current one is, or moved more upmarket to distinguish it from the Malibu.

Did you notice? The Monte Carlo disappeared in June? There is no replacement planned unless you think of the upcoming Camaro.

Speaking of the Camaro, it is planned -- finally -- to be in dealer's showrooms in January 2009. Given all the publicity we've already seen, I can hardly wait. I will be happy to have it finally here so I don't have to see movies with it in it and magazine articles every month. It probably will be the most publicized GM car ever -- before real production. One can only hope that the real car will live up to all this publicity.

You'd better be happy with the current Corvette. It isn't planned for a redesign until 2011 or 2012. You will get the 650 horsepower "super-Corvette" as a limited-edition 2009 model. Supposedly you will easily be able to tell the difference between that and a "normal" Corvette. You'd better because you will be paying $100,000 or so.

Pontiac is in for some difficult decisions. If CAFÉ increases mileage standards, then the plans to make more rear-drive Pontiacs may have to change.

Some rumors have a rear-drive replacement for the little G5. That's a long shot, but then with the problems mentioned above, who knows what will happen. Plan to see G5s running around for quite a few more years.

But then what to do with the G6? The original plan was to redesign it on the new Epsilon platform for 2010 introduction. Then GM decided that Pontiac needed to have rear-drive cars to distinguish them from Chevrolets. That postponed the introduction to 2012, but now the development of that platform has been put on hold due to pending CAFÉ standards. Plan on seeing G6s running around for quite a few more years too.

Then there is the soon-to-be-on-sale G8 (in January). It is basically a Pontiac-ized Holden Commodore from Australia. GM tells us that unlike the recently deceased GTO, the G8 will be done properly. The G8 replaces the Grand Prix will die at the end of this year (note that GM expects the last of the production will be sold directly to rental fleets). This car has real possibilities for us enthusiasts. It will be offered with a 261 horsepower V-6 or a 362 horsepower V-8. It should start in price at $25,000.

The GTO has no replacement and no Firebird version of the Camaro is planned. GM does say that "if" either or both were to show up, they would have different names. Of course! They would have to be a Gx, where x is some arbitrary number. We wouldn't want something easy to remember, would we?

The only Pontiac with a real name, the Solstice, is due for a coupe version in the 2009 model year, and evolutions of the current engines with more power. A restyle is due in the 2011 model year.

And last (and least), the Torrent will disappear in January 2010. No replacement is planned so that Pontiac will become just a car company.

There are some real changes upcoming for Buick. With more Buicks being sold (and made) in China than in the U.S., you can look for at least some Buicks sold in the U.S. to be made in China in the future. Isn't that a revolutionary change? The quintessential American car will be made in China. Well, everything else we buy seems to be made there, I guess I shouldn't be surprised.

The newest Buick will debut in China, the Excelle, in late 2008. It will be built on the new Alpha front-drive platform designed in Germany. It is about the same size as a Toyota Corolla, and probably will be imported from China to the U.S.

The LaCrosse Super debuts as a 2008 with a pushrod V-8. Yes, it does look (still) like the previous generation Ford Taurus, but that's not a bad thing entirely. The newly redesigned LaCrosse will debut in 2010 here and in China. It may be made there and exported here, or maybe not.

The redesign of the Lucerne is due for model year 2011 when it will switch to a rear-drive platform. It, like the G8 will be built on a Holden platform. This year, Buick China is debuting a Park Avenue built on that platform, so here, too, we may have a shared car with China.

Buick showed a Riviera concept in Shanghai. The decision to produce it will be announced at the Detroit show in January.

The new Enclave replaces the Rainier and likely will get a V-8 in the near future.

That means that the Rainier will disappear at the end of the 2007 model year. Also disappearing at that time will be the Rendezvous and the Terraza. Does anyone remember the Terraza? I don't.

Lastly we have Cadillac. GM is spending big money developing new cars for Cadillac. The new CTS is being introduced as I write this. It has gotten quite good reviews. Look for a coupe soon as well as a wagon for Europe. Maybe we will see the wagon here too. Note that I do mean a station wagon, not a SUV-like adaptation.

Cadillac is also considering a smaller-than-a-CTS rear-drive car. They currently make a BTS sedan that is built on a front-drive platform and is built in the Saab factory. It has been a conspicuous failure in Europe. This is a market that requires rear-drive and the new Alpha platform might just be the answer. Hopefully if it happens, we will see it here.

The DTS will die with this generation. This will make Cadillac all rear-drive cars.

What replaces the DTS hasn't been decided. The STS hasn't been the success Cadillac hoped for, so perhaps whatever is developed will replace both. In the short term, the STS gets a freshening for the 2008 model year.

Cadillac (and GM management) really want a premium sedan/coupe competitor to BMW and Mercedes. This means the 7-series and S-class. They even envision the possibility that the coupe might be a competitor for the Bentley Continental GT. Production is desired for model year 2010. This may change with new CAFÉ standards.

The XLR is due for a freshening for the 2009 model year and a redesign in 2012 or 2013. Since it is built on the Corvette platform and that's the schedule for the Corvette, it isn't surprising.

Given the PR pressure to become a more "green" car company, much less the new CAFÉ standards, GM has big plans. I mentioned the Volt previously, but that isn't all GM has up its engineering sleeves.

For the 2008 model year, the Saturn Vue and Aura will be available with a "mild" hybrid system like the Honda Civic. The cars don't ever run on electric alone, but the gas engine stops and restarts at signals, and the electric motor is available for power assist. It is charged by regenerative braking. There will be a $2000 to $3000 premium for this system and it is expected to better fuel economy by 15 to 20 percent.

The Vue will also be available with a real hybrid system, more like the Toyota Prius in 2008. There aren't many details yet.

The real news that this fall, GM will announce advanced hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon. Some experts say this is a state-of-the-art system and is actually better than anything Toyota offers. Given the platform, these will be required to tow heavy loads -- and will. The Cadillac Escalade will get the system in model year 2009.

In the near future, you will see some diesel engines in GM models. Later, more advanced ones will be available because GM just bought a 50% stake in the Italian firm, VM Motori. While this is really needed to raise fuel economy, it will be a difficult step for GM because of their disastrous reputation for their past car diesels.

In the more distant future we have lithium-ion batteries in hybrids and electrics. GM hopes production-ready versions in three years. One can only hope. Also in the future are fuel cells. This fall, GM will make 100 Equinox fuel cell SUVs available to some fleet users. Production versions are hoped for 2010.

If all this happens, the future for GM looks considerably better than what we have seen in the past.

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