Car "Dude" Evan

Issue 6 - 1 January 2004

Predictions for 2004

Well, here it is again, the end of another year with the "Big 3" promising not to lose money, to wow the car buying public with lots of too-late-to-market mediocre product and another promise to reclaim some of their shrinking market share from those evil imports. Of course, the auto magazines are also making predictions and Wall Street has already made its predictions, in the secret Good Old Boys back room. That means that they have already made their money, purchased inventory stock (to sell to YOU) and are they are about to screw you, the common investor, out of any trading profits in the coming year.

I decided to do my own prognosticating for the future. Hey, the Wall Street Journal Dart Board stock picking system works as well as any analyst, so my predictions should be as good as all those insiders in the car industry. The twist is that I'm making some very long-term predictions about what cars you can buy new today that are future classics.

1. VW New Beetle Convertible. We already have the bad news from Wolfsburg that VW Chairman Dr. Bernd Pischetsrieder has put the nails in the coffin of the New Beetle. In two or three years, after the New Golf has been introduced to the US market, we are supposed to get a Jetta convertible or something like that. The New Beetle is built on the old Golf platform in Mexico and the convertible transformation is done by Karmann in its own facility next to the Mexican VW plant. In a year or two, only the New Beetle will be built on the old Golf platform. I think the New Beetle Convertible is a classy chop job. The design retains the classic Beetle roof line and the car even looks good with the top down! Karmann really paid attention to detail and the quality shows. The New Beetle is popular in the US, but sales have been slowing down over the past few years and it isn't nearly as popular in Europe where the old Beetle was seen as a post-war era car which was pretty much the only thing people could afford. The old Beetle was not romanticized as it was here. When buying this car, get it as loaded as possible. I highly recommend the Turbo GLS model with the new, slick 6-speed Tiptronic transmission now available for 2004. (Note: GM still has 4-speed automatics in the majority of its cars. The new high-end, high tech Cadillacs have a 5-speed automatic -- time to catch up to the competition, Mr. General.) I also suggest the leather sport seats package, cold weather package (a must to have heated seats in a convertible), Xenon headlamps and the wind deflector to complete the deal. Colors are important. Go for the Harvest Moon Beige or Aquarius Blue for that feminine look or the triple black for a more masculine take on the Beetle. In all cases, it should have a cloth, not vinyl, top.
2. The Pontiac Aztek. The Aztek was one GM's major mistakes of the new millennium. It debuted as a cool show car at the Detroit Auto Show a few years ago and got a very positive response. The problem was in the translation from show car to real car. GM simply didn't have a platform to use for the SUV, so the General, in its effort to show it could bring a car to market quickly, reached into its (junk) parts bin and came up with its existing minivan platform and typically cheap switchgear. Let's make it perfectly clear that nobody likes the GM family of minivans and GM has always been playing catch up with its competitors. The Aztek show car morphed into Quasimodo: misunderstood, alone and much maligned. Sales have always lagged far behind projections. I doubt GM bothers to project much for the Aztek these days as it was formally announced that GM would kill the Aztek at the end of the 2004 model year. The Aztek was hated by the automotive press from its first day. If you can forgive the bizarre split rear hunchback, the SUV really isn't that bad to drive. With a decent set of tires and the all wheel drive option, it's a pretty good package. You can get it with an array of GM electronics, a decent CD/stereo system, including an MP3 player and the not-yet-ready-for-prime-time On Star. I recommend getting the AWD model with at least the 1SC option package. I didn't like the leather seating package because the leather didn't look like it would hold its form. The Aztek is the modern AMC Pacer or Gremlin. These cars were very odd and maybe even ugly. Today, these cars are much-loved, odd-ball classics. It's almost impossible to find a Pacer in good shape these days. Most prime condition Pacers sell for much more than their original sticker prices. In 20 years, I predict the Aztek will be one of those kitsch, highly sought after, remembrances of the "good old days".
3. The New 645Ci. This stunning new coupe from BMW is going to be controversial for its radical styling from Chris Bangle and the very unique rag top with "fins". Traditionally, coupes and convertibles are always more collectible and command a higher resale value. This is the first 6 in over 10 years and this time, it's not just a second thought. I think the convertible is the best yet of Chris Bangle's designs. Like any car with controversy, it is likely to be a future classic. With the excellent BMW 4.4L V8 and a slick new 6-speed stick or Steptronic transmission, it's sure to be a winner now and 20 years from now.
4. The Chevy SSR. This "truck" is a low-volume halo car for Chevrolet. It's got show car styling with a retractable hard top and an integrated bed cover. The bed is practically useless. At $42,000 plus options plus the $20,000 dealer markup, this is way over-priced, but someone will pay the price of admission to this great-looking-on-the-outside Chevy truck. The low volume, flashy colors and complete uselessness make this truck sure to turn heads for many years. It is also much more practical than the Plymouth Prowler and it's available today.
5. The GMC Envoy XUV. I wrote about my test drive of this car earlier. I don't think GM will sell that many of them and most of them will be beat up by the owners. The ones that survive, in excellent condition, will be as fun to look at in a show 25 years from now, assuming all the electric stuff still works. It's fun to see the Studebaker Wagonaire from the 1960s today in a museum as a good idea that just leaked too much water. I think the Envoy XUV is heading in that direction. I don't think you need to get the 4-wheel drive version and I think that the 4.2L inline 6 cylinder engine is more interesting than the unsophisticated 5.3L V8. Make sure and get the SLT trim level and add every cheap-looking GM gizmo you can. This truck would be something to show your grandchildren: Look Bobby, the roof opens very slowly!
6. Nissan 350Z. The new Z-car is a fast and fun car to drive. It's reasonably priced in the sports car arena and packs a lot of value for the money. The convertible version is very slick and is probably the most collectible of the models. Traditionally, Z-cars have been popular with tuners and if well maintained, the cars retain pretty good residual value. I'm not as sure about the "classic" status for this one, but it embodies all the new ideas that the reborn Nissan has put together over the past 5 years since Renault took control. The styling is sharp and distinctive. The powertrain is excellent and you can choose the character of the car with the sports or touring packages. There may be many Z-cars alive after 20+ years, so if you do keep one as a future classic, make sure it's garaged and well-maintained.
7. 2003 BMW M5. The outgoing M5 has been the king of sports sedans since its introduction. The automotive press has lavished the M5 with numerous titles and "best of" forever. BMW didn't overproduce the M5 like its rival the Merc E55 AMG. There is no question in my mind that the 2003 M5 will be highly coveted for years to come. Residual value is outstanding for the M5 and many still trade for near the original sticker price. The M5 is distinctive but subtle. One look at the rear end with the 4 exhaust tips, wide tires and low, muscular stance, tells you this car is built for speed. Even in the future, the M5 will be a legendary car that people will still want to see and own.
8. BMW Z8. 2003 is the last year for the stunning and unique Z8. The last year is the only year to have the Steptronic automatic transmission and Alpina tuning. Everything about this 2-seater convertible oozes expensive. It has the M5 engine and its the only BMW with the M5 engine mated to an automatic transmission. All prior years had the 6-speed manual transmission. The dash is totally unique to the Z8. Every switch was custom designed. The steering wheel is unique to the Z8. This was a very expensive, limited-edition BMW that won't be repeated soon. Dealers are saving the "last one" for a sucker who will pay up to $200,000 for it. (You know, what's an extra $60,000 between friends?). If you have one, keep it!
9. Porsche 911 GT2. If you can afford the lofty stripped price of $183,000, add the outrageous dealer markup and a few extremely overpriced Porsche options, it easily pushes past $200,000, plus tax, license, dealer expenses, special Porsche luggage and other miscellaneous items. The GT2 is a low volume, very fast, very beautiful 911. Even in LA, there aren't that many GT2s running around. Sure, the Turbo 911 is everywhere in my neighborhood, but not the GT2. It's an instant classic.

There are few rules that apply to any future classic. Always keep the car in original manufacturer specs. Don't add horrible aftermarket wheels or radio equipment. Color is important. Choose a color that you think will be highly desired in the future. Keep the paint and interior as immaculate and original as possible. Never put bumper or window stickers in your car. The car should be kept in a garage. Low mileage is also important. If you are a high mileage driver, use another car. (There are plenty of refrigerator-like cars out there for daily use -- Call Lexus!) The car should be driven regularly to maintain the mechanicals and it should be kept in a garage. Don't give it to the kids as their first or college car. It will be destroyed.

I know there are other future classics out there, but they just aren't coming to mind. Good luck and happy hunting in 2004!