When I go out to socialize, it seems inevitable that I twist the conversation to cars. This time, it was an early evening patio event and I was chatting with three guys around my age (mid-40s). I asked all three which car they thought was the most dependable. In unison, all three said: "Toyota".

That's how good the Toyota marketing department has woven its message into the fabric of American society. The second choice was Honda -- not a big surprise either. I then polled them about their own personal car. Two owned Toyotas and the other had a C-Class Mercedes-Benz. All of these men could afford a different or even nicer car; however each had separate but interesting reasons for their purchasing decisions.

Mr. Mercedes, a Boston transplant, college professor and musician, volunteered that he just bought the extended warranty on his C-Class. He's had lots of little repairs done over the four year warranty period, so he thought the extended factory coverage was a good form of insurance. I agreed. If you are going to keep a C-Class Mercedes built between 1999 and 2005, an extended warranty is likely to pay off depending how long you keep the car and its mileage. He's never driven a Toyota -- but he just knows that if you want a very reliable car, buy a Toyota! In addition, he said he wouldn't drive anything other than a Mercedes. The spotty reliability of his current C-Class wouldn't deter him from buying another. Score one for Mercedes' image and one for Toyota too!

Mr. RAV-4, a writer and print model, had moved to LA from NYC about a year ago. Naturally, he's in the "I hate LA" stage of adjustment. His main complaint, no surprise, was the horrible traffic. He lives in the Atwater Village area of LA, just east of Interstate 5 over the Hyperion Bridge. Any long-distance travel to far away lands like Santa Monica or Century City is a major traffic nightmare. And there is no public transportation that will get you from Atwater Village to Century City in a reasonable amount of time.

He too bought into the Toyota mystique. He wanted a small car that was easy to park (oh, very New York, right?). His prior car was a nine year old Nissan Sentra, which has had no problems major mechanical problems during its life. He simply performed the routine maintenance. He kept the Sentra (huh?) but wanted a small SUV so he could sit up high, but still fit into parking spaces and get good gas mileage. The RAV-4 fit the bill for him.

Mr. Toyota Corolla, a California native and a mortgage broker, doesn't care about cars. He just wants basic, reliable transportation. We call that a refrigerator. And a Toyota Corolla is right up near the top of our refrigerator scale. This person could certainly afford better, but he chooses to spend his money on travel. He's owned Toyotas for most of his life and swears by their reliability.

I think I could have walked up to each person at this event and asked the same question -- What car brand is the most reliable? And I'm pretty sure the answers would have been the same -- Toyota with a sprinkling of Honda from the single women. And since this is LA, don't even think about hearing about one of the Big 2 ½ mentioned in the same breath as the word "reliable".

On Friday September 2, Danny Hakim of the New York Times took a look at the August 2005 auto sales numbers. The news isn't good for the Big 2 ½ . These numbers are important because while my random sample may be unscientific, the August sales numbers are basic statistics that are pretty damn scientific.

GM lost 16.5% compared with August 2004 sales. Only one month ago, the suits at GM's HQ were jumping for joy when GM's market share jumped to 30% of the total market -- a level not seen in 20 years. I haven't heard any noise about August. Despite continued fire sale prices, GM's total market share dipped to 23.7%. Sales of GM's biggest SUVs -- the Chevy Suburban, GMC Yukon and Hummer H2 -- fell more than 20% year to year. This could be explained by the fact that these models are very old and about to be replaced; however, most consumers don't know that.

GM still (publicly) disputes that the soaring gas prices (well past $3.00/gallon in California) would affect sales trends. And just to make you the consumer believe them, GM has just begun running TV ads bragging that their full-size pickup trucks (GMC Sierra and Chevy Silverado) get "the best gas mileage in their class". The same commercials were made for the Tahoe and Suburban. I don't have to check the EPA official numbers to believe GM, I just know that most people know that the real gas mileage for any car or truck is substantially less than what you see printed on a window sticker. This is delusional marketing at its best.

Ironically, GM had both the biggest gainer and biggest loser for August 2005. The Chevy Silverado full-size pickup truck lost 35.4% but the Pontiac Grand Prix gained 78.4%. I'm willing to be that most of those lovely Grand Prix's went directly to rental fleets. GM also extended its "employee pricing plan" to full-size 2006 big trucks and SUVs. Desperate times must require desperate measures.

Ford and Chrysler had very small increases for August -- 1.4% and 1.2% respectively. Ford held onto a 19% market share and Chrysler, barely in third place, had 14%. And this was supposed to be a great month for Ford and Chrysler because they and more inventory to dispose of than GM. Without the big incentives, Ford and Chrysler probably would have lost market share.

So how about that old "reliable" Toyota? Without fire sale "employee discount" prices, Toyota's sales were up 9.5% from August 2004 and Toyota's market share rose to 13.9% -- watch out Chrysler. Honda, the next most "reliable" brand from my informal survey, was up 18.6% with a total market share of 10.6%. Nissan (remember that nine year old "reliable" Sentra owned by Mr. RAV4?), enjoyed a 10.6% increase and held a 6.3% market share.

If you've been reading our website, you know that both Alan and I have talked about the strong new products from the Korean twins Hyundai and Kia. Hyundai has made unbelievable progress over the past 10 years. At this point, the Koreans have done a fantastic job of copying Toyota and Honda to the point that some of their cars are hard to distinguish from their Japanese rivals. Hyundai's sales were up 5.1% and it now commands a 2.8% market share! Be afraid, very afraid.

I have some more random samples from LA: I see countless new Hyundai and Kia vehicles. I see lots of Ford Escape Hybrids but still very few of the plain old Escape. There are lots of Ford's Mustangs running around too. If you see a V6, it's a rental; if you see a GT it's privately owned. I saw my first Mercury Mariner Hybrid yesterday -- it has more personality than its sister Escape. I also see lots of Chrysler's new 300/300C -- ditto for the Dodge Magnum. I haven't seen any new Neons for a long time now -- even after fire sale prices.

GM continues to strike out with LA customers with one notable exception. The only GM brand that is popular with real customers is Saturn. That said, the popular models are the ones about to be discontinued -- the ones made in Spring Hill, Tennessee with plastic body panels. May Saturn rest in peace.

The financial and automotive community is finally catching up to what we've been saying for almost two years. Just come to LA and do your own random sample. Joe Nocera, staff writer for The New York Times business section, Danny Hakim one of my favorite automotive journalists from the Times, and now Automotive News staff writers Jason Stein and John Teahen - with two front page articles this week -- all seem to think that the market is moving to more fuel efficient cars (not trucks). And specifically with respect to GM, with 18 months ahead to roll out all-new monsters like the Suburban, Yukon and Tahoe (plus the various counterparts at Cadillac), GM is sailing straight into the market segment with its biggest decreases for 2005. Oh yes, my friends, there is trouble in Detroit.

I invite all of these journalists and writers to come to LA for a few days and see what the future has to hold for Detroit. All they need is to randomly sample LA. It's not the future here -- it's today.