GM is at it again. On Monday, GM trotted out its "wow" concept 2009 Camaro. The pictures are fantastic and GM certainly got a big ego boost from such a beautiful styling exercise. But can GM bring this car to market? Read on.

Three years ago, GM walked away from its original pony cars -- the Chevrolet Camaro and Pontiac Firebird. The "F-Body" models, as they were termed for their unremarkable rear-drive platforms, were the last of a platform that dated back into the 1980s.

These cars had live (solid) rear axles and a very crude suspension system. Of course, you got GM's 5.7L V-8 as an option (from the Corvette) or you could have the "ladies" version with a crappy push-rod V6. The automatic transmission was the standard 4-speed automatic found in almost every GM rear drive vehicle over the past 20 years.

Although Ford had made the wise decision to invest in a new Mustang and Chrysler had nothing like a pony car in its lineup, GM decided there was no market for the legendary 2-door, rear drive coupes. GM had allowed the last generation Camaro/Firebird to languish in purgatory for years with nothing but a few cosmetic updates. Of course sales were down. GM wanted to close the plant, so why not just ditch the slow-selling neglected product? Management decided to send the two legendary nameplates from its glory days of the 1960s to the dust bin. Most auto enthusiasts thought this was a mistake at the time. It was good luck for Ford -- there was no competition for the new Mustang and today Ford is cleaning up as the sole player in the pony car market.

Fast forward to the 2006 North American International Auto Show in Detroit: As the show approached, the word leaked out (from Chrysler's P.R. department) that Dodge was going to have an all-new Challenger, complete with a Hemi V8 to keep the crowds drooling in anticipation of the production version due in 2009. The show car is a direct copy and update of a 1970-1974 Dodge Challenger. The design is definitely retro with a few modern touches. All the car magazines ran pictures and articles about the Challenger. There were lots of "high-fives" in Auburn Hills for getting the Challenger on the cover of most mainstream automotive magazines.

So it should be no surprise that GM already knew about the Challenger a while ago and screamed "me too"! The same management that killed the Camaro three years ago decided it was time for GM to jump on the muscle car bandwagon. Bob Lutz, GM's blow-hard Vice Chairman, ordered up a retro show car based on a (big surprise) early 1970s Camaro design. Of course, the car gets the 6 liter V8 and 6-speed transmissions from the current generation C6 Corvette. It even gets GM's new cylinder deactivation technology, already in use by Chrysler on its Hemi V8s in the 300/Magnum. And just to match everything else Chrysler is doing, GM says the Camaro will get independent suspension for the first time. Both GM and Chrysler are spending lots of money to create these show cars which will only frustrate customers who want the car today (remember how long it took the Pontiac Solstice to come to market?) but can't have it. Both Chrysler and GM need new products on dealer lots today -- not in three or four years.

GM doesn't currently have a rear-drive platform that it wants to use for the Camaro. It will probably use the once killed, then resurrected rear drive Zeta platform developed by GM's Australian subsidiary, Holden. The Zeta fiasco was another GM management blunder. To save costs, GM decided it didn't want to spend the money on a new rear-drive platform regardless of the fact that Holden would need a new rear-drive platform for the Australian market.

But not even one year after the decision to kill the project, the project was given new life and funding. That's called stupid management making uninformed decisions. They probably wasted more money flip-flopping than they would have just keeping the project in development.

Holden also makes the slow-selling Pontiac GTO for GM. The GTO gets the Corvette engine (but not the new 6-speed transmission) stuffed into a dull shell sold as the Monaro in Australia and parts of the Europe. It's likely that the resurrected Zeta platform will be used for a new Monaro as well as the second generation GTO and the born-again Camaro. The GTO sells for about $34,000 and GM sold 13,569 units in 2005. I don't know if GM can make money on the GTO -- even if it is just a styling exercise on a plain-Jane Aussie coupe.

Mr. Lutz seems to think GM can make money with the Camaro if it can sell 150,000 - 160,000 units a year. Hmmm... Mr. Lutz doesn't give any more details like the entry price for one of these new cars; however, I don't think GM can bring it to market for much less than $30,000. To match the Mustang, the entry level base coupe needs to be in the $20,000 range. But GM has already filled that slot with the Pontiac Solstice. My guess is that the V8 Camaro with a few options will likely be in the $35,000 price range.

Now let's assume that the Camaro and the Dodge Challenger come to market at the same time with the same pricing structure. Dodge will want to sell the same amount of cars. And let's not forget that the new GTO should be in the market at the same time. Oh yeah -- by 2009, Ford will have an entirely new-generation Mustang in the marketplace!

The Camaro, GTO and Challenger all want to sell high volumes in what is essentially a niche market. The average selling price will likely be close to $30,000. The Mustang will probably keep a much lower entry-level price point as it currently has -- under $20k for the V6 coupe. However, the Mustang uses a much cheaper version of the Lincoln LS platform. If the Mustang were to match the more sophisticated independent suspension platforms proposed for the GM and Chrysler/Dodge products, the price of the Mustang would be higher.

Ford sold 160,975 Mustangs in 2005. Of course, a chunk of those sales go to the rental fleets, but the Mustang is a solid seller that is profitable for Ford. The new SVT/Cobra/Shelby editions of the Mustang will be available shortly, so Ford will have a performance Mustang in the market well ahead of the competition from GM and Chrysler. And the souped-up Mustangs will sell in the mid-$30k range. Sound familiar?

I'm not counting any competition from the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Acura, Infiniti and the Koreans -- all will probably have a coupe with a slick 6-cylinder engine for the price of the American V8s. The point here is that I don't think the demand is there for 160,000 of any single nameplate except the Mustang. GM needs to bring the Camaro back to life with price points to match the Mustang -- a tall order. And even if GM manages to play the pricing game right, are there really another 160,000 people who will buy both the Camaro and the Mustang? Chrysler will want a piece of that action too. And we know that Chrysler will market the Challenger as a German/American muscle car. I haven't read anywhere Chrysler talks about volumes but it's likely that Chrysler will need to sell at least 100,000 units to justify the costs and turn a profit. Add to that mix a new GTO and you have the Big 2 and Dodge slugging it out for a market demographic that may not be there!

There is another major unknown factor that clouds the future. Unfortunately, this isn't 1968 and gasoline prices do matter to some buyers. In LA, the price of gas is hovering in the $2.50/gallon range. We've already experienced prices approaching $4.00/gallon in post-Katrina hysteria. I don't have a crystal ball; but I can take an educated guess that by 2008 or 2009, prices will be higher -- at least another $1.00/gallon and possibly more. Even with cylinder deactivation technology and engine management computers to optimize economy, the daily commuter in LA traffic won't get fuel economy approaching 30 mpg. We saw the car-buying public react to high gas prices by moving away from big trucks and SUVs that guzzle gas. Today, gas prices are relatively stable. The market, however, continues to move toward more fuel efficient cars and away from behemoth trucks and SUVs. Maybe a hybrid Camaro is where GM should be heading!

To the hardcore pony/muscle car buyer, the price of gas will not be a deterrent. Are there more than 500,000 - 600,000 customers lining up to buy hot-rod rear drive coupes? It's possible, but not likely. I don't see it being economically feasible for GM to dust off the Camaro badge, remake the GTO and then play with Ford and Dodge in the limited market of 2-door coupes and convertibles that start at $20,000 with loaded models in the $35,000+ price range. A convertible Camaro, GTO or Challenger would probably be $40,000. It's a tough sell.

Please, GM, focus on your core products that are in the marketplace today. Stop teasing with fantastic show cars that are completely unavailable. You've done this dance before and the results aren't translating into high volume sales or profits. Give us all a break!