In July, BMW and Porsche will introduce sport coupes with some pretty good stats to back them up. The 2006 BMW Z4 3.0 Coupe gives the Z4 series new life in its mid-cycle refreshing. The 2006 Porsche Cayman sheds its "S" designation, adds the Boxster 2.7 liter boxer six and sheds $10,000 off the sticker to come in at around $50,000, before options. The BMW Z4 Coupe starts at $40,000 -- a full $10k less than the Porsche.

Later this year, BMW will bring the Z4 M Coupe to market with will compete head on with the Porsche's Cayman S. It's likely that the M variant will beat the Cayman S on both price and performance. So does that mean that Porsche will counter BMW with a Cayman Turbo? With Porsche, that possibility seems very real. After all, which car is better? Porsche, of course, just ask them. That's why the Cayman deserves at least a $10k premium -- you pay for the privilege of driving a Porsche.

But back in the land of quasi-reality, Los Angeles, BMW has the edge with both price and dealer availability. As Alan pointed out a couple weeks ago, [25 May 2006], the 3.0 liter six cylinder engine currently used by BMW across its line of cars is the most sophisticated six used in a mass-production automobile. BMW is serious about its weight distribution metric: 50-50. The Z4 Coupe is right on the mark at 49.7% front and 50.3% rear. The Cayman S has already received universally-excellent reviews for its excellent handling and performance -- many say better than the 911. The mid-mount boxer engine in the Cayman bestows unique and ideal sports handling benefits.

BMW's website already has all the pricing information on the Z4 Coupe. The Coupe has limited options and packages; however, it's available with all the high-level of BMW sport, safety and comfort features. Here's the build for my Z4 Coupe:

BMW includes automatic headlights and rain sensing wipers on all 2006 models.

Total price: $50,990

That's a lot of money for a car with only two seats; but when you're playing at this level in the German car game, I guess $50k is chump change. Porsche laughs at $50k. The new Cayman starts at $50k! Porsche's US website has a preview of the new Cayman on its front page. You can check it out here.

Option pricing hasn't been publicly announced for the Cayman, but it's likely that the option prices are the same for the Cayman as they are for the Cayman S.

I priced a Cayman with the following options:

Total Cayman Price: $69,74

[Metallic Paint costs between $825 and $3,070 for stock colors]

Cayman

So a comparably equipped Porsche Cayman would be around $70,000. That's a whopping $19k premium over the new BMW Z4 Coupe. Porsche's attitude, as usual, is arrogant. If it's a Porsche, it's worth any premium they charge so they can retain the crown as the most profitable car company in the world on a per-unit basis. Besides, the Porsche name is worth the premium. If you don't like it, buy something "lesser". Really -- just ask any German representative of Porsche.

Mark my words today -- every US car magazine will run a cover story comparing the Porsche Cayman to the BMW Z4 3.0 Coupe. And later this year, when the BMW Z4 M Coupe becomes available, there will be another series of cover articles comparing the new Z4 M Coupe with the Cayman S. Both the BMW and Porsche PR departments will work this angle to death. And I'm sure that there will be editors/testers in every magazine that will give either product the "thumbs up" or the "nod" to whichever car they end up liking best -- or at least as best as money and boondoggle trips to exotic places can buy.

Back in Los Angeles, the number one market for both cars, I doubt that the press machines will make much of a difference in the balance of sales. BMW will likely outsell Porsche, as it usually does. Much will come down to how good a lease you can get on either car.

I've been waiting for the non-S Cayman to appear in the market and I got my wish a few months early. I thought it would be announced in the fall Paris auto show. Instead, Porsche decided to get the "cheaper" Cayman to market early, probably to give the dealers something with a better price point to offer its poor customers who can't quite yet afford a 911.

A quick check of Porsche sales through May 2006 shows a slow down in all model sales except for the Cayman S and the Carrera 4/4S variants -- both introduced at the beginning of 2006. But the slowing of Cayenne, Carrera and Boxster sales isn't good news for Porsche, so while the company will never admit a market miscalculation, it will take actions to retain sales growth and profit -- and that's why we will get the Cayman (sans-S) this July.

BMW, however, is blasting the market with new models this year which will serve to increase sales and profit. The 325xi sports wagon was introduced a couple months ago. The freshened Z4, with upgraded suspension, engines and coupe and M variants will account for five different Z4 offerings. The new 3-Series coupe will be here in the fall with the new turbocharged 3.0 liter six. And shortly after the Coupe, the 3 Convertible will hit the market in the spring of 2007.

BMW's new 3-series will be fully-populated by the end of 2007. Porsche can't and shouldn't try to compete with BMW or any manufacturer. It should concentrate on what it does best: making great sports cars. Right now, only the VW Group and DaimlerChrysler's Mercedes-Benz brand can even attempt to match (or at least keep pace) with BMW.

If Porsche wants a bigger market share, the basic economic formulas still apply. If Porsche lowered the price or gave more content for the money, sales would go up. It's that simple.

But this is not simple for Porsche. Company management believe that a $19k difference in very comparable products is just the premium a "true Porsche person" would pay to own a Porsche. Hey, at least Porsche could throw in automatic headlights with the package -- it's not even an option on any Porsche sports car. And it's not entirely clear if "hands free" communication (a $1,200 combo package on the Cayman) is really Bluetooth or something you have to buy a very expensive Porsche-approved phone in addition in order for it to work! You have to buy the VW-based Cayenne to get the automatic headlights and Bluetooth!

I love Porsche. No other car I've owned or driven has been quite like a Porsche. But the BMW Z4 is a serious sports car with all the BMW virtues, including excellent, cutting-edge engine technology, razor sharp steering and class-leading styling. And these days, $20,000 could buy you a new Honda Civic Hybrid! I think a Honda Civic Hybrid next to a new Z4 coupe in your garage would make good pairing in LA. Now that's a very seductive alternative to the Cayman. Let me think about that one...